PROP FIRM ODDS ← Back to the calculator

How the numbers are made

Every result on the calculator comes from the same simulation. This is what it does, what it leaves out, and where the rules it applies come from.

How the number is produced

Each run is a full evaluation attempt, traded day by day until the account passes every phase or breaches a rule.

  1. Each phase starts at the nominal account size with fresh drawdown counters. Phase targets are a percentage of that starting balance.
  2. Every trade risks a fixed fraction of the current balance and returns either +risk × R or −risk, drawn against your win rate. With trading costs switched on, a fixed cost per trade is taken off both: +risk × (R − cost) or −risk × (1 + cost). The three levels are 0.03R (swing), 0.07R (day trading) and 0.15R (scalping). Leave costs off if your R:R already has them taken out.
  3. The daily loss limit is checked after every trade, measured from the day's opening balance either as a percentage of that balance or as a fixed amount of the initial capital, whichever the firm uses. The maximum loss is checked against a static floor, or against a floor that trails the highest balance, after every trade or only at the daily close, again following the firm.
  4. Where a firm has a best-day consistency rule, reaching the target is not enough: the best day must also be within the allowed share of profit, as the firm defines it, and the account keeps trading until it is. A minimum number of profitable days works the same way.
  5. Where a firm's daily limit is a pause rather than a breach, hitting it ends trading for that day and the account continues the next.
  6. When the target is reached before the minimum trading days are met, the account stops trading and sits out the remaining days rather than risking the pass.
  7. Cost per pass is the challenge fee divided by the pass probability — the expected spend on fees per funded account, not the price of one attempt. Euro-priced plans are converted to dollars at the EUR/USD rate of 30 October 2026 (1.116) so every plan ranks on the same scale.
  8. With different risk per phase switched on, phase 1 trades at its own risk and phase 2 at its own; 1-step plans use the phase 1 value. The whole ranking is simulated that way, not just the scenario.
  9. The phase-by-phase scenario shows a typical passing run on the #1 plan: the middle 10% of funded runs, ranked by total trades (and separately by total days), averaged per phase. Unlike per-phase medians, these add up to the total. Each phase's pass chance counts only the attempts that reach that phase.
  10. Days to funded is the average length of one attempt, failed attempts included, divided by the pass probability: the expected number of trading days until you hold a funded account if you buy a new attempt straight after each failure.
What this does not model

Trades are treated as independent and identically distributed. Real trading has streaks, correlated positions and news gaps, so treat these as upper bounds rather than forecasts. Spread, commission and slippage are either inside your R:R figure or, with trading costs switched on, a fixed amount per trade; in reality they vary from trade to trade. Swap is not modelled. Payout terms, profit splits, fee refunds, challenge rewards and scaling plans are not scored, and consistency rules are only modelled where a firm publishes one. Trailing drawdowns are modelled without locking at the initial balance, which is the stricter reading.

On the rule data

Prop firm rules change more often than any other number on this page. Every plan here was checked against the firm's own checkout, rules page or help centre, not against review sites, which were wrong on prices or rules for every firm we checked. Each plan's rules, under View rules in the ranking, carry the month they were verified. Read the firm's own rules page before you pay for anything.

Not advice

This is a probability tool, not financial advice. A high pass probability is a statement about a rule set, not about whether a given firm pays out or stays solvent.